What is the business cycle dating committee
It has been a quarter of a century since India commenced the journey of opening its economy to the world.But the idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) for India has not received sufficient attention.
It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.The committee is comprised of a small group of leading business cycle experts. business cycles dating back to the mid-1800s is available on the NBER web site.This group reviews a variety of economic statistics and indicators of U. economic conditions before deciding on the turning points in the economy—business cycle peaks and troughs—that define periods of recessions and expansions. Official Recessions and Expansions The NBER web site describes a recession and the types of economy-wide economic data used to identify a recession in the U. economy as follows: A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.How does that relate to your recession dating procedure?Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used.See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?
See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
Official business cycle dates—the peaks and troughs in the economy that define recessions and expansions—in the U. Today it has over 600 university professors and researchers who conduct empirical research on the economy as Bureau associates.
Business Cycles Within the NBER, the Business Cycle Dating Committee plays the key role in determining business cycle dates.
Most of the research in business cycles is done keeping in mind advanced industrial economies.
The scarcity of research for studies of business cycles in India along with data limitations might be some of the reasons why policymakers in India are not too concerned about this issue. Business cycles are the short-run fluctuations in aggregate economic activity around its long-run growth path.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), founded by Geoffrey H.